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Research desk

Notes from the desk
that owns the data.

We measure Bitcoin's structure at the source, then write down what it told us before price reacted. Every piece here is reconstructed from data we collected ourselves, and every claim is replayable from the block or the tick it came from.

5
Notes published
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Primary source
Wed
Weekly cadence
Featured reconstruction
Market structure 16 May 2026·9 min read

Anatomy of the May cascade: how $412M unwound in 45 minutes.

CascadeGuard flagged the trigger at $98,500 forty minutes before the wick. We walk the book depth, the funding stack, and the venue-by-venue liquidation tape that turned a routine flush into a chain reaction, all from our own WebSocket capture.

Read the reconstruction
Cascade tape · replay
← trigger 40m earlyflush
The archive

Every read, on the record.

Whales05

Who Absorbed $180M in Whale Shorts? The Invisible Buyer Wall

VWAP $64,500. Pain point $65,334. $180M in net SHORT sold, and price went UP +1.5%. The Absorption Detector dissects the invisible buyer wall on Hyperliquid.

February 28, 2026·8 min readRead →
Case study04

The January Unwinding: From $98K to $60K in 25 Days

A derivatives data autopsy of the January-February 2026 BTC crash. Liquidation structure, whale exits, cascade chain analysis, and what the Fast Feed detected before the market moved.

February 10, 2026·11 min readRead →
Whales03

Whale Positioning vs. Liquidation Zones

When whale positions converge near loaded liquidation zones, cascade probability shifts. This analysis maps convergence patterns across 16,000+ tracked wallets and their relationship to liquidation triggers.

February 9, 2026·3 min readRead →
Liquidations02

Cascade Anatomy: How Liquidation Chains Propagate

A level-by-level breakdown of how liquidation cascades propagate through price levels across multiple exchanges. From trigger to aftermath, mapped in real-time data.

February 2, 2026·6 min readRead →
Derivatives01

Leverage Distribution Across 22 Exchanges

Every exchange carries a different leverage profile. This analysis maps the distribution across 22 derivatives exchanges, revealing why exchange-specific calibration is required for accurate liquidation mapping.

January 20, 2026·4 min readRead →
How we write

Not opinion. Reconstruction.

A research note only ships when the claim can be replayed from data still on our disks. No screenshots of someone else's chart, no borrowed aggregator numbers. If we cannot point to the block or the tick, we do not publish it.

01
Sourced ourselves

Every figure comes off our own node and venue sockets, never an aggregator.

02
Replayable

Reproduce any chart in a note from the same inputs and get the same answer.

03
Attributed

The engine and endpoint behind each read is named, so you can check it live.

Read the structure before price does.

New notes land every Wednesday. Get them the moment they clear the desk.

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